Bitcoin resumes rise, Ether gains ahead of upgrade, Dogecoin makes up some lost ground

Bitcoin resumed its rise above US$28,000 in Monday morning trading in Asia, a support level it has fluctuated around for most of April after a strong start to the year even amid higher interest rates, bank failures, and concerns about a recession in the U.S. Most other top 10 non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies gained, including Ether ahead of Wednesday’s upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain. Dogecoin rose. U.S. stock futures were mixed after a three day weekend.

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Fast facts

• Bitcoin added 1.40% to US$28,343 in the 24 hours to 8:00 a.m. in Hong Kong, up 0.57% for the week or little changed, according to CoinMarketCap data.
• The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has risen 70% so far this year and is holding its ground around US$28,000 this month even as equity markets have faced headwinds from higher interest rates to stem inflation, a series of bank failures, and signs the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.  
• Bitcoin could break through US$30,000 in the coming week but the caution is that a recession may be looming, said Kadan Stadelmann, chief technical officer of blockchain infrastructure development firm Komodo.
• “Normally, we see risk on conditions as something that drives up the Bitcoin price. But, over the last month with the banking crisis, we’ve actually seen risk off be positive for Bitcoin. Right now, the price action is telling us the market is undecided,” said Stadelmann.
• Ether edged up 0.55% to US$1,859, a gain of 3.62% for the week ahead of  Wednesday’s Shanghai hardfork, also known as the Shapella upgrade, which will allow investors to withdraw their staked Ether for the first time.
• Most other top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization showed moderate gains led by Dogecoin, which added 2.31% to US$0.08328 for a weekly rise of 5.30%. The meme token surged last week when Elon Musk changed Twitter’s blue bird icon to the Dogecoin dog icon, breaching US$0.10 on April 4. It then lost steam as the Twitter icon shifted back to the bird.
• Solana added 1.51% to US$20.33, but showed a weekly drop of 1%. Polkadot rose 1.29% to US$6.22 but similarly lost 0.87% over the past seven days.
• The total crypto market capitalization gained 0.95% in the past 24 hours to US$1.19 trillion. Total trading volume in the same period rose 8.19% to US$29.46 billion.
• In the non-fungible token (NFT) market, the Forkast 500 NFT index rose 0.12% to 3,968.42 in the 24 hours to 08:00 a.m. in Hong Kong, losing 2.34% for the week. The index is a proxy measure of the performance of the global NFT market and includes 500 eligible smart contracts on any given day. It is managed by Forkast Labs data branch, CryptoSlam.
• U.S. stock futures traded mixed as of 8:00 a.m. in Hong Kong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.14%, S&P 500 futures moved up 0.091% and the Nasdaq-100 futures Index dropped 0.10%. 
• The U.S. unemployment rate, released last Friday, fell to 3.5% in March compared to 3.6% in February. The U.S. saw 236,000 jobs created in March, slightly below expectations but still pointing to a strong labor market, according to TradingEconomics. 
• However, several U.S. indicators released earlier last week pointed to a cooling economy. Job openings which fell to 9.9 million in February, the lowest since May 2021. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in March also signaled a possible recession, falling to 46.3%, down from 47.7% in February.
• U.S. interest rates are now between 4.75% to 5%, the highest since June 2006. Ahead of the Federal Reserve rates meeting on May 3, analysts at the CME Group expect a 35.3% chance of no change to rates, while 64.7% expect a 25 basis-point rise, up from 44.5% on Friday.
• This week brings more economic indicators in the U.S. — The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer and producer prices index on Thursday, the monthly retail trade report expected on Friday, and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting expected to come out Tuesday.

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