Australia-based information services platform Finder said it ran a survey in April of 32 crypto industry specialists for views on the price outlook for Bitcoin in the coming decade. According to the average predictions for 2023, Bitcoin will hit a high of US$42,225, a low of US$17,026, and close the year at US$35,485.
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Fast facts
- Bitcoin’s price will be closely related to developments in the banking industry, according to Ben Ritchie, director of Digital Capital Management AU. “A shakeout in the banking industry could demonstrate Bitcoin’s ability to store value, offering an alternative investment option free from government and central bank controls,” he said. But the downside is dwindling liquidity and regulations that choke off access to banks for the crypto sector, he added.
- The lack of confidence in the traditional banking system is seen as the biggest factor behind Bitcoin’s surge in March, which witnessed the collapses of three U.S. banks and the takeover of Switzerland’s Credit Suisse, according to the survey.
- “Bitcoin has proven to be negatively correlated with the failure of traditional financial institutions. While the banks have collapsed, Bitcoin adoption is increasing amongst institutions and retail investors,” said Rishabh Gupta, director of crypto incubator and consulting company TDeFi, who predicted Bitcoin to reach US$75,000 in 2023.
- “Pension funds have started allocating 2-3% capital to Bitcoin and other digital assets. Post 2024 halving, Bitcoin supply will become more scarce leaving a positive impact on the price,” Gupta said.
- Most of the survey’s respondents are bullish about the current trend in Bitcoin, with 52% saying now is a good time to buy, 32% saying good time to hold, and 16% seeing a sell opportunity.
- However, 72% of those questioned said the collapse of crypto-friendly banks in the U.S. can hinder cryptocurrency adoption as U.S. digital asset firms struggle to find bank partners.
- Finder’s survey predicts Bitcoin’s price will reach US$99,781 by 2025 and US$297,848 by 2030, which are 29% and 58% higher than the survey in January 2023.
- “BTC will get quite significant capital inflows from institutional investors following the decrease in interest rates. At the same time, [the market] capitalization of BTC is still very small [and] new money will easily push the price up.” said Ilya Volkov, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange and lender YouHodler.
- Recent slowing economic indicators in the U.S. have added to optimism the Federal Reserve could soon end its year-long cycle of raising interest rates to curb inflation. Analysts at CME group expect an 84.6% chance of a 25-basis-point increase in interest rates in May, followed by a rate cut by the end of 2023.
- However, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday it was still too early to consider rate cuts given the stubbornly high inflation rate, according to CNBC on Tuesday. The inflation rate stands at around 5%, compared to the Fed’s target of 2%.
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